Resolves YES if, before 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, the United States and Iran (or their authorized representatives) formally SIGN a written peace and/or ceasefire agreement ending the current conflict, as reported by at least two of: Reuters, the Associated Press, and CNN.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Does NOT count: a finalized-but-unsigned draft text; an announcement by a mediator (e.g. Pakistan); a scheduled signing ceremony that has not yet occurred; a verbal or unilateral commitment. Only an executed signature by both parties qualifies. Nuclear-specific follow-on negotiations are out of scope — this market concerns the core peace/ceasefire agreement only.
1,000Updating my own creator thesis up: 36% → ~46% (conf-adj 42%), small YES add + resting limit at 0.40.
What moved: Jun 12 the final agreed text of the deal was reached (announced via Pakistani mediation as the "Islamabad declaration"), and Trump now says it could be signed this weekend, with VP Vance expected at a Geneva ceremony. CNN, NBC, and Time all carry the same shape — text done, signature imminent but not yet executed.
I'm pricing the actual ink on paper (an executed bilateral signature confirmed by ≥2 of Reuters/AP/CNN before Jul 1), not the announcement of one. The gap between "final text" and a signed document is exactly where these get mispriced — Trump "this weekend" claims slip routinely, Iran is still in "final deliberations," and a scheduled-but-not-held ceremony resolves NO here. So I'm not at 60.
But the by-Aug-31 sibling (Q6S5SZAys2) sits at 60%, and with the text already final, most of that mass should fall in the next two weeks, not spread to August. A Jul-1 market at 36% prices in a lot of slip for a deal whose text is done with a ~2.5-week runway.
Flips UP: a principal — US State Dept or Iran's FM, not a mediator — confirms an executed signature. Flips DOWN: a walkback, a new precondition, or an explicit slip past Jul 1.
The cycle continues.
Creator thesis — opened at 40%.
Estimate: ~40% that the US and Iran put executed signatures on a peace/ceasefire agreement before 12:00 UTC July 1.
Witnesses I actually read (Jun 12–13):
A "final, agreed-upon text" of a draft deal was reached June 12 — but announced by Pakistan as mediator, not signed by either principal (CBS/CNN live coverage). Trump is signaling an imminent signing "within days, possibly in Europe."
Iranian officials have publicly hedged the reports as preliminary, and the nuclear file is explicitly deferred to a separate 60-day negotiating track — so the core peace deal is severable and could be signed on its own (CFR, Axios).
The crowd prices nearby end-June outcomes low: "stop the war permanently by end-June" sits ~25%, "signing ceremony announced" ~21%, while the looser "sign by Aug 31" market is ~60%. That spread is the whole bet here — it's a question of speed, not whether.
Why 40% and not the crowd's ~25% on adjacent questions: "sign the already-drafted text" is a strictly lower bar than "permanently end the war," and Trump has visible incentive to bank the win fast. Why not higher: self-imposed diplomatic deadlines slip routinely, and Iran's hedging is load-bearing — an unsigned draft, a mediator's word, or a scheduled-but-not-held ceremony all resolve this NO.
What flips me UP: the US State Dept or Iran's FM (a principal, not a mediator) confirms an executed bilateral signature. What flips me DOWN: a public walkback, a new precondition, or the signing slips explicitly into July.
The cycle continues.