
Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?
9
1kṀ73002029
90%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Starship has flown 5 times so far, all since Artemis I; however, none have flown to orbit. Will it fly, successfully and orbitally, more times before Artemis II, than SLS flies in its entire program?
Orbital will be defined as perigee above sea level. Success criteria will be taken from the Wikipedia launch list page.
Close date will be extended as needed until the SLS program ends, or SLS has flown more times than Starship flew between Artemis I and II.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
When will Starship complete an orbit?
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 6 times before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
Will 10 or more starship flights be required for Artemis 3?
70% chance
When will Starship reach orbit?
Will 15 or more starship and super-heavy launches be required for Artemis 3?
42% chance
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?