Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
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For the purposes of this market orbit will be defined as starship completely circling the earth. Therefore if starship is deorbited off the coast of Hawaii prior to making it all the way around the Earth that launch will not count. This market resolve as true if starship launches seven separate times and makes it to full orbit before Jan 1, 2026.
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Just to be clear our count is still at zero because there haven't been any full orbits or any full orbit attempts yet. But there's still plenty of time.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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