At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2024?
10
220Ṁ4152030
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will resolve this question at 1st of January 2030. This question will resolve as "Yes" if according to my best judgement mI think that before the end of 2024 OpenAI had an AGI. I will try to use similar threshold for AGI as I would at the current moment (in 2024). I believe that the goal posts are going to move quite a lot by then but the question can be thought of as "If at the end of 2024 I had all the same information about OpenAIs current progress as I will have at the start of 2030, would I think that they have achieved an AGI".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
19% chance
Will OpenAI claim that it has achieved AGI in 2025?
4% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
32% chance
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
40% chance
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
85% chance
Will OpenAI abandon the goal of building AGI before 2030?
13% chance
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
7% chance
when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
How many companies will claim to own an AGI by 2040 given OpenAI claims to own an AGI by 2030?
Will we get AGI before 2032?
67% chance