At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2024?
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2030
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I will resolve this question at 1st of January 2030. This question will resolve as "Yes" if according to my best judgement mI think that before the end of 2024 OpenAI had an AGI. I will try to use similar threshold for AGI as I would at the current moment (in 2024). I believe that the goal posts are going to move quite a lot by then but the question can be thought of as "If at the end of 2024 I had all the same information about OpenAIs current progress as I will have at the start of 2030, would I think that they have achieved an AGI".

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I think in 2030 you will have something that we today consider as AGI, but you won’t think that since you get used to them

@Sss19971997 this might be true but I'll be trying to resolve this based on what 2024 me would have thought. Also the question isn't about what we'll have in 2030. The question asks about what we had in 2024. I might still need to make this a bit clearer as it is a pretty weird question

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