The "lead" means that an OpenAI model is in the number 1 position in terms of overall quality, on leaderboards such as:

https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models

https://huggingface.co/spaces/ArtificialAnalysis/LLM-Performance-Leaderboard

Background

OpenAI has maintained a leading position in AI development with models like GPT-4, backed by significant investments including $10 billion from Microsoft. They have an ambitious roadmap to achieve AGI by 2027, which includes annual GPT model releases and development of advanced systems like the rumored Q* (Q-Star) with 125 trillion parameters.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• An AI model from a company other than OpenAI ranks #1 on artificialanalysis.ai's leaderboard continuously for at least 6 months between now and [3 years from now]

• This must be a single continuous period, not multiple shorter periods adding up to 6 months

The market will resolve NO if:

• OpenAI maintains the #1 position throughout the period

• OpenAI only loses the #1 position for periods shorter than 6 months

• OpenAI regains the #1 position before a 6-month period is complete

Considerations

• The AI landscape is rapidly evolving with strong competitors like Anthropic, Google DeepMind, and others working on advanced models

• OpenAI's continuous model improvement strategy and significant financial backing make an extended loss of leadership less likely

• The artificialanalysis.ai leaderboard methodology may change over time, but resolution will be based on their rankings as they exist at the time

• If artificialanalysis.ai ceases operations, an equivalent widely-recognized AI model leaderboard will be used for resolution