Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025
5
38
168
2025
72%
chance

Only resolves no if something drastic happens (for example related to the current wave of resignations) that leads OpenAI to shrink or move away from frontier models. OpenAI getting overtaken by Google and Meta is not enough for this to resolve no unless it becomes clear that OpenAI is out of the race. If OpenAI stops existing or gets acquired by another group which doesn't preserve the name and leadership this will resolve no.

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