Resolves to 100% of whoever wins the 2028 presidential election. Remember to bet "Other" if you think there is a substantial probability its someone not yet listed but you don't know who it might be. I believe betting for Other gives you free shares for anyone added later
Resolves "None" in any case where the United States ceses to exist or if no election is held. If the election is postponed then this market resolves to whoever wins the postponed election, unless the election is held in or after 2032, in which case this market resolves to "None".
Related questions
@JonathanRay Primaries are a pretty strong filter for being an economically illiterate demagogue, especially for democrats
@JonathanRay Hillary and Biden and Obama are all very economically moderate by Dem standards. I see an argument for Biden not being economically moderate in practice, but his brand was boring moderacy.
@MichaelWheatley They’re all really old (too old to run in 2028) and it seems like the younger rising stars in the party are much less economically moderate
@mvdm roughly speaking — conditional on Trump not elected in 2024 (~50%), being in OK health and eligible (~40%), I think it’s >50% that he runs.
@HenkPoley Betting on YES on Other gives you YES shares on anyone subsequently added to the market. Betting NO likewise gives you free NO shares
@DylanSlagh Thanks. It's also quite impossible to cash out your bet before 2029, via the web UI, isn't it?
@HenkPoley If you bet in the opposite direction of what shares you own and buy an equal amount of shares in the opposite direction you “cash out” your bet. (The number of shares you have is the same as your potential payout on resolution)