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MANIFOLD
Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)
205
Ṁ26kṀ100k
2028
26%
Other
20%
JD Vance (Vice President)
14%
Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)
13%
Gavin Newsom (California Governor)
5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)
3%
Kamala Harris (Vice President)
3%
Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)
2%
Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)
1.7%
Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)
1.4%
Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)
1.2%
Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)
1%
Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)
1%
Donald Trump Jr.

Resolves 50% each to the two people who are the nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties in 2028, at the end of whichever national convention happens second.

Any change in the nominees after the conclusion of the second convention will not effect the resolution of this market.

Additional likely candidates will be added by the house as necessary and will split off from "other". Please leave a comment if you have any suggestions.

See also:

/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2028-united-states-a84qq6ejnj
/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-e7fd97afa9bf
/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-757313dd0344

Market context
2028 Election
Politics
US Politics
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It is crazy aoc and Marco Rubio are not options @ManifoldPolitics @mods

@Jack1 not sure I can edit this, but someone should

@Jack1 Added

AOC, Ro Khanna, Shawn Fain should be added

@AlexMiller3a5e You'll have to sell me on Shawn Fain (but the others are added)

@Stralor Hasan Piker mentioned Shawn Fain as a sleeper candidate for 2028. He's well liked in leftist circles. He's planning a national strike on May Day 2028. President of the UAW (one of the largest labor unions)

Mike Johnson could be the first sitting member of the House to be elected president since Garfield

Since this market resolves at 50% for the democratic nominee, Kamala is way overpriced at 35% (taking the 2024 odds for Kamala she should be priced at 0.5 * 0.53 = 26.5%).

sold Ṁ475 YES

Oh crap, I completely misunderstood this market.

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