Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the political party of the candidate who wins the 2028 United States presidential election, scheduled for November 7, 2028. The winning party will be determined based on the candidate who secures the majority of electoral votes as reported by reputable sources such as the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and major news outlets like The New York Times and CNN.

Background

The 2028 U.S. presidential election will determine the nation's leadership for the subsequent four years. As of June 2025, several potential candidates from both major parties are being discussed:

• Republican Party: Vice President JD Vance is considered a frontrunner, with a 25% chance of winning the 2028 presidential race, according to SportsBettingDime. (livemint.com)

• Democratic Party: Former First Lady Michelle Obama is viewed as a strong contender, with a 20% chance of winning in 2028. (livemint.com)

Other notable figures include California Governor Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, both of whom have been mentioned as potential candidates. (usnews.com)

Considerations

• Third-Party Candidates: While historically less successful, third-party candidates can influence election outcomes. The "3rd Party" option will resolve "Yes" if a candidate not affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties wins the presidency.

• Evolving Political Landscape: The political environment can change significantly leading up to the election, affecting candidate viability and party dynamics.

• Electoral College System: The U.S. president is elected through the Electoral College, not the popular vote. This system can result in a candidate winning the presidency without winning the popular vote, as seen in previous elections.