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MANIFOLD
If nominated, which Democratic candidate will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
41
Ṁ1.4kṀ1.8k
2028
65%
Cory Booker
62%
Jon Ossoff
62%
Josh Shapiro
61%
Pete Buttigieg
60%
Gavin Newsom
58%
Andy Beshear
58%
Gretchen Whitmer
57%
Wes Moore
55%
Abigail Spanberger
54%
J.B. Pritzker
54%
Mark Cuban
50%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
47%
Tim Walz
39%
Kamala Harris

A candidate is considered "nominated" if they are officially selected as the Democratic Party’s nominee at the 2028 Democratic National Convention. If no convention takes place, the nominee is the candidate listed on enough state ballots as the Democratic nominee to win an electoral majority. The market resolves as N/A for all candidates not nominated.

A candidate is considered "elected" if they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election and secure enough electoral votes to become president, with the resolution based on official results from a reliable source such as the Associated Press, the Federal Election Commission, or the final vote count certified by Congress. If a nominated candidate drops out, is disqualified, or otherwise does not participate in the general election, the market resolves as NO for that candidate. If the nominee wins the election but does not take office, the market still resolves as YES. If no election takes place in 2028, the market resolves as N/A.

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Someone politically smarter than me bet on Spanberger