Will novelcrafter become the goto AI tool for writing novels in 2024?
Basic
8
αΉ€197
Jan 1
28%
chance

This will resolve to YES if novelcrafter is listed in the top five of at least five different "Top 10" type lists, and the #1 or #2 choice in three of those lists.

Get
αΉ€1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Been working on AI tools for authors for almost a decade now (starting way back with Notebook.ai). AI sentiment is still extremely negative among authors (and adjacent creators) and current SOTA still struggles with recall, arcs, and pacing at high context windows.

IMO we're still a couple years out from any tool becoming the "go-to" tool for writing novels, so betting against a specific one seems like a safe bet.

How this resolves seems highly dependent on how you define "go-to" though: if 1% of authors use AI to write a novel but 99% of them use novelcrafter, does that make it the go to method (among AI tools)? Are you comparing vs traditional tools like word processors?

predicts YES

@AndrewBrown I suppose it would be the goto tool for writers who use AI tools. Thanks for the question and the opportunity for me to clarify.

What do you mean by novel ? Something someone might want to read ?

predicts YES

@Zardoru Any creative writing. Maybe a full novel (80k words+), maybe a short story or novella.

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Terms + Mana-only Termsβ€’Privacyβ€’Rules