Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
11
100Ṁ2182027
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if I judge an AI model to exceed gpt-4o in creative writing by a similar magnitude as o1 exceeds gpt-4o in advanced mathematics.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2026?
60% chance
Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026
50% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
66% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
41% chance
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
43% chance
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027
33% chance
Will an AI write anything that interests me enough to want to keep reading it by June 2025?
8% chance
Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?
2% chance
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
72% chance
Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025?
20% chance
Sort by:
Comment hidden
People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2026?
60% chance
Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026
50% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
66% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
41% chance
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
43% chance
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027
33% chance
Will an AI write anything that interests me enough to want to keep reading it by June 2025?
8% chance
Will AI writers replace all jobs for human writers by the end of 2025?
2% chance
In 2025, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short story to a prompt?
72% chance
Will most critics think AI writes good poetry by the end of 2025?
20% chance