MANIFOLD
Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?
15
Ṁ100Ṁ312
2027
50%
chance

Resolves yes if I judge an AI model to exceed gpt-4o in creative writing by a similar magnitude as o1 exceeds gpt-4o in advanced mathematics.

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sold Ṁ18 NO

@JaundicedBaboon Since the market comes down to your judgment, do you want to share how far the current best model is from this benchmark?

gemini 3 is pretty good ngl

bought Ṁ20 NO

The creative writing I have seen so far has mostly been bad, and nobody put in the effort to convince me otherwise in two months.

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