Will Neal Stephenson publish a novel in which AI is a crucial plot element by the end of 2026?
10
220Ṁ6712027
11%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will resolve this based on my reading and critical reviews. Really, I think that it will be obvious, but I'll take input from the community.
I will not bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
2% chance
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
51% chance
Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
87% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
32% chance
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
57% chance
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
67% chance
Will a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
15% chance
[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
39% chance
Will there be a widely read alternative to The Doors Of Stone written by AI released by 2027?
13% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
57% chance