Which x-risks will kill half the population first? | Manifold

Which x-risks will kill half the population first?

#Effective Altruism

9

40

Ṁ358

Ṁ600

2100

1D

1W

1M

ALL

51%

Artificial Superintelligence

15%

Biotechnology

15%

Nuclear Weapons

10%

Climate Change

2%

Aliens

1.2%

Asteroid Impacting Earth

6%

Something Else

Given that existential risks are a problem, which one will happen first? After all, it's hard to solve climate change if everybody is dead from nukes.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Sort by:

how does this resolve if everyone running and using manifold, including me and you, dear reader, is dead?

How does this resolve if ASI causes another x risk?

@Nikola If the risk occurred because of ASI, then it resolves as ASI.

Related in Effective Altruism

If human brain emulations are created, will the 10 highest GDP nations all have granted them human rights after a year?

-31% 1d19% chance

Are (any) shrimps sentient ?

+3% 1d53% chance

See more Effective Altruism questions

More related questions

What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now?

In a year, will Peter Wildeford believe that pandemics are a larger share of x-risk than nuclear weapons?

[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036

Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?

What major events pose the most risk to the world ending? (poll)

Will half the population die from biotechnology by 2100?

Who will die first?

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?

Effective Altruism questions

If human brain emulations are created, will the 10 highest GDP nations all have granted them human rights after a year?

Are (any) shrimps sentient ?

Related questions

What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now?

What major events pose the most risk to the world ending? (poll)

In a year, will Peter Wildeford believe that pandemics are a larger share of x-risk than nuclear weapons?

Will half the population die from biotechnology by 2100?

[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036

Who will die first?

Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?

Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?

Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?