Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050? | Manifold

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?

40

247

Ṁ6.5K

Ṁ730

2049

18%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.

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bought Ṁ25 of YES

Should be higher than linked 2040 market

It's interesting that this market is at 27% and the market on >50% of the population dying for any reason is only at 8%. I think there's a bias for people who put a significant probability on transformative AI to still use the business-as-usual mindset when forecasting non-AI questions?

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