Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050? | Manifold

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?

40

1kṀ6502

2049

18%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI. If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.

See also:

️ AI Alignment

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

Should be higher than linked 2040 market

It's interesting that this market is at 27% and the market on >50% of the population dying for any reason is only at 8%. I think there's a bias for people who put a significant probability on transformative AI to still use the business-as-usual mindset when forecasting non-AI questions?

Related questions

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will an AI built to solve alignment wipe out humanity by 2100?

Related questions

Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?

Will an AI built to solve alignment wipe out humanity by 2100?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules