MANIFOLD
Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
42
Ṁ1kṀ12k
resolved Feb 24
Resolved
NO

This excludes famine or epidemic/ pandemics.

In the past 30 years there have been aprox. 10 natural disaster events that have killed more than 50,000 people, including earthquakes and heat waves.

Market context
Environment
Public Health
Climate
Climate change
Natural Disasters
Existential Risk
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@creator I believe this resolves NO

@Ziddletwix @traders does anyone have any reasons this wouldn't resolve NO?

@Ziddletwix yeah o1 also responds NO when asked

@Ziddletwix This can resolve No.

Crudely, this should be around 13% because 1 year out of 3 and there's 40% of the year left.

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