Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
Plus
42
Ṁ12kJan 1
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This excludes famine or epidemic/ pandemics.
In the past 30 years there have been aprox. 10 natural disaster events that have killed more than 50,000 people, including earthquakes and heat waves.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a hurricane that strikes the United States in 2024 cause over $150 billion worth of damage?
8% chance
Will there be a disaster this year with an economic cost of over $100 billion as of December 31, 2024?
18% chance
Will there be any catastrophic cascading natural disasters in 2023 or 2024?
3% chance
Will there be a mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities in the US in 2024?
5% chance
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2024?
6% chance
Will there be many natural disasters in 2024 around the world, including an earthquake in America and Italy?
25% chance
Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2040?
78% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
29% chance
Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?
41% chance
Any of these 50 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024 (improved!)
17% chance