Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024? | Manifold

Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?

Plus

42

Ṁ12k

Jan 1

4%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This excludes famine or epidemic/ pandemics.

In the past 30 years there have been aprox. 10 natural disaster events that have killed more than 50,000 people, including earthquakes and heat waves.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Natural Disasters

#Climate change

#Existential Risk

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

@creator I believe this resolves NO

@Ziddletwix @traders does anyone have any reasons this wouldn't resolve NO?

@Ziddletwix yeah o1 also responds NO when asked

Crudely, this should be around 13% because 1 year out of 3 and there's 40% of the year left.

Related questions

Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?

Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?

Related questions

Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2025?

Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2040?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules