Definitions

• Cured means that in the US, the disease occurs/harms/kills at a rate <=10% the rate it occurred in US residents at EOY 2023 (or best available).

  • That is, the rate of new cases of the disease has decreased by at least 90%

  • OR, cases happen more often that that BUT the negative consequences can and are normally and easily solved. i.e. if it does happen, the damage done is only 10% as bad as before (by total life expectancy or total QALY impact).

  • For example, if we make a disease which used to cause -10 lifespan only take -2, that's not quite enough, but if we also reduce the negative QALY impact by 90%, then that is clearly enough.

  • Hard case: where the combined improvement is >90% but the individual QALY+expectancy numbers aren't below it. I would like to count this case as a yes but that is proportional to net damage. The point is, actual net damage reduction is what I care about.

  • So the point is, net total damage from the disease is down.

  • This includes QALY from health damage, lifespan loss, etc. but does NOT include the medical costs, or costs from having to eat food you don't like, etc.

  • This does need to actually happen in reality - not to just be theoretically possible. Details below.

  • Also note that if the cure is done pre-natally, or requires very early intervention, then for diseases which have a huge lag, such as Schizophrenia, it is hard to satisfy this requirement, because even if all newly born children do not have it, lots of people who will be in their 20s near the due date are still at risk. That would mean the claimed cure would not have arrived in time, since at no time through the due date did the actual prevalence of new diagnoses go down.

  • if the medical system breaks down or we lose the ability to measure what is happening, that doesn't mean the disease stopped happening. This market is about progress in medical technology / lifestyles / food etc, regarding whether people can either prevent, or very easily avoid consequences of, that disease.

  • Note that if the disease can be prevented technically/medically, but the population, for whatever reason, isn't coming in to get the treatment, then that will not count as a cure. The way to satisfy the claim would be for an informed medical & public policy science/math based professional to have a reasonable belief that the actual real rate and total harm of the disease, as described above, has met the threshold. So random pieces of paper which aren't reasonable to believe, even if they are endorsed by USGov, or the UN, or whoever, are not relevant, if the arbitrator of the claim doesn't accept them.

• Depending on the situation, future LLMs may be used to estimate information or details to use to judge the claim.

Scoring:

• The first one to meet the criteria scores 100%

  • The next scores 95%

  • etc

  • So, the first 20 score above zero. Once those pass, the remainder will be zero'd out.

  • BUT, the claim only lasts until mid 2036. At that point all still open disease answer go to ZERO (once doubts about actual state at that moment is resolved)

• I will try to resolve claims as early as possible

Scope

• US citizens in the US or residents with an approved status of some kind, either federal or state. So, illegal immigrants in CA count because they are in most ways treated as CA citizens. I know this is annoying but I think most stats here are reported that way.

• If the US is actually invaded, the foreign armed forces soldiers do not count as residents.