What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now?
➕
Plus
21
Ṁ1723
2123
73%
Human war (any type)
54%
Climate crisis
48%
Societal collapse
45%
AI (both misaligned and misused)
44%
Coronal mass ejection
43%
Nuclear war
41%
Global pandemic
32%
Self-replicating machines (macro, micro, nano, or otherwise)
30%
Supervolcano eruption
15%
Impact event
11%
Close supernova
10%
Mass suicides
9%
Kessler syndrome
9%
War with extraterrestrials
7%
Outside object disturbing the solar system gravitationally

Intended to resolve to a single answer if possible and no simultaneous independent events occur. If one event can be made a strong cause of all others, that one is chosen.

Please add answers if you want to bet other and have specific ones in mind (at least not too much more general than I made; making them all orthogonal seems a fool’s errand, so good is better than perfect).

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@degtorad Are answers that are subsets of other answers okay? You said you want to resolve to only one if possible, but I assume that if one answer is a subset of another, you would resolve both to YES if the event was an example of both.

@PlasmaBallin Resolving in this manner would be reasonable to me, if I recognize answers as subsets of one another and don’t forget I more or less committed to this, yeah; but I concede I’d rather not have too much evident-strict-subset answers!

@PlasmaBallin Also I very much like your proposed answer about gravitational disturbance, evaded me completely the first time. 👏

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