What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now? | Manifold

What will be the first significant occurrence(s) closely related to killing > 50% of humanity, first time after now?

22

1.9kṀ1766

2123

67%

Human war (any type)

57%

Climate crisis

48%

Societal collapse

45%

AI (both misaligned and misused)

44%

Coronal mass ejection

43%

Nuclear war

41%

Global pandemic

32%

Self-replicating machines (macro, micro, nano, or otherwise)

30%

Supervolcano eruption

15%

Impact event

11%

Close supernova

10%

Mass suicides

9%

Kessler syndrome

9%

War with extraterrestrials

7%

Outside object disturbing the solar system gravitationally

Intended to resolve to a single answer if possible and no simultaneous independent events occur. If one event can be made a strong cause of all others, that one is chosen.

Please add answers if you want to bet other and have specific ones in mind (at least not too much more general than I made; making them all orthogonal seems a fool’s errand, so good is better than perfect).

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Related questions

When will an AI-assisted bio-attack first result in at least 1,000,000 deaths?

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