Will George R.R. Martin finish Winds of Winter by the end of 2024?
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71
Ṁ17k
Jan 1
5%
chance

Any announcement by Martin that the book is finished will qualify as a "yes". Does not need to have a publication date.

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Ṁ1,000
and
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sold Ṁ5 YES

If you're interested enough to bet on this market, you would probably also like to read his most recent blog post. It basically just plainly states the issues he's been dealing with this year:

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2024/09/09/a-belated-blog/

I created a more realistic question:

Entering into a happiness hedge.

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