Will George R.R. Martin finish Winds of Winter by the end of 2024?
24
403
490
2025
31%
chance

Any announcement by Martin that the book is finished will qualify as a "yes". Does not need to have a publication date.

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I created a more realistic question:

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Entering into a happiness hedge.