Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
46
1.3kṀ2980Dec 31
88%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Final entry in main book series - does not include short stories, Simarillion style additional content, etc.
Does not count if partially completed and finished by another author
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - Resolution Deadline Extended: The deadline for resolving the market has been extended by 12 months. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire be published before George R. R. Martin dies?
13% chance
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
61% chance
Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?
56% chance
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
61% chance
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
66% chance
When will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
Will "The Winds of Winter" be published while George R. R. Martin is alive
61% chance
Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?
51% chance
Will "A Song of Ice and Fire" be completed before "House of the Dragon"?
6% chance
Will George R. R. Martin ever win the Hugo Award for Best Novel?
34% chance