Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
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1.3kṀ5653Dec 31
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Final entry in main book series - does not include short stories, Simarillion style additional content, etc.
Does not count if partially completed and finished by another author
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - Resolution Deadline Extended: The deadline for resolving the market has been extended by 12 months. (AI summary of creator comment)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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