Per https://dragaera.fandom.com/wiki/Book_list, the Dragaera series is planned to have 19 books, 17 of which have been published, with Chreotha and The Last Contract remaining. Will the author, Steven Brust, successfully complete both works, with them published in any form, before January 1st, 2029?
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I reviewed the Author's online posts. He claims to have completed the manuscript for the 19th (last) book and now says he has significant progress on the 18th (penultimate) volume.
It feels like this kind of hangs in the balance due to the way publisher schedules work. If he was done with the penultimate one and in progress on the last one, it would be a strong Yes. But in this case he probably can't do the finishing up stages on the last book until the penultimate one is done.
Realistically it looks like he has a high chance of a late 2026 publishing date for book 18 and then this market would have a full two years to get the last one out. I doubt a publisher would want to push more than 2 years between volumes, 1 year feels like a good hype cycle time?
I'll push this to nearly 80% based on this research.
It's very close at first glance, the mean book (excluding two outliers which appear to be breaks) takes 2.14 years to write, which comes really close to 2029 (series completion would be July 2028 by my calculations). However, it appears that right after breaks Steven gets a burst of energy and writes way faster for a few books, which points towards Yes because there was a break recently. With this in mind I project the last book will release February 2028 or earlier.
In conclusion, once you look deeper, all signs point to Yes barring an apocalyptic event. But if the apocalypse happens, you won't get your mana anyway, so bet Yes so I can sell out.
Graph (x is book #, y is time spent writing after that book came out until the next book was released based on dates from Goodreads)
