This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.
It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books.
The entire book must be published during George R.R. Martin's lifetime. This means that if it's released in multiple parts, Martin would need to be alive at the time of the final book's publication.
This question will be resolved if he dies or the book is published. I might extend the question closing date.
1,000People are also trading
@Eliza as a no buyer, I think a combination of time decay and absence of thing that would likely have been said publically had he made any real progress in recent months/years.
@AbuElBanat He just went on a rant as recently as yesterday saying he still cares about this book, along with his other projects. Sometimes you just have to believe.
@Eliza Also a No holder. If I recall correctly, the last time he announced any progress on the book was in ~2022, and many of his recent blog posts have been more pessimistic. I think this article is what convinced me that he will not ever finish: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-features/george-r-r-martin-howard-waldrop-ugly-chickens-game-of-thrones-1236078329/. In it, he seems to accept that he may not finish the book.
If I recall correctly, the last time he announced any progress on the book was in ~2022
Last announcement of progress I think is still September 2024:
I did produce some new pages on both THE WINDS OF WINTER (yes) and BLOOD & FIRE (the sequel to FIRE & BLOOD, the second part of my Targaryen history)
he seems to accept that he may not finish the book
I'm not so sure, the page you linked shows this to me:
He continues: “But that’s still a priority"
And yesterday on his blog:
And I care about Westeros and WINDS as well. The Starks and Lannisters and Targaryens, Tyrion and Asha, Dany and Daenerys, the dragons and the direwolves, I care about them all. More than you can ever imagine.
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many of his recent blog posts have been more pessimistic
He's ultra mega super depressed, all his friends are dying, he can't work on his main project because it is hard and he's stuck and he's written himself into 20 different corners -- while he can actually make progress on 100 other unrelated projects that he cares about more.
Last time in the ~couple years leading up to actually releasing the ASOIAF book, his blog was upbeat, with constant updates (about EVERYTHING, not just the book). He cared about stuff. Posted things he was just interested in. Mentioned progress on the book regularly. There's no evidence from his blog that he is making any progress at all right now. HOWEVER there is a subset of fans who seem to think he is secretly working on it and just not telling anyone as a media strategy to avoid the hounding.
@Eliza I think it's sentiment based off "length of time since last serious update that directly states progress has been made/a certain number of pages are finished/work is being done" aside from "a few pages have been done"
@Eliza
a) 45% was probably just wrong in the first place
b) I've heard that one of the recent blog posts hints that WoW will be ready soon.
@MichaelWheatley He used to mention his book progress around once a month. I think the last time he specifically said he was working on this book was December 2023, and it has only had a couple mentions since then.
He seems to have started traveling a little bit less, but he still does these trips that seem to put him off from working for 2-3 weeks for a trip of less than a week.
Half his blog posts are about his friends dying and he does not seem like a very happy person much of the time.
The other half of his posts in recent years have been post after post after post about TV things and seem like a mix between genuine excitement and getting the word out about these shows.
Roughly a decade ago, his posts would be frequent, with many posts per month, and often quite long. The more recent ones are infrequent and short.
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I'm still a Yes holder and I also thought 45% was low at the time (and bought Yes then). But if this gets much over 75% I'll probably be reconsidering my position.
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He claimed to have locked himself up in a "mountain holdfast" during the first year+ of Covid and somehow did not manage to finish writing a book? Let's get the doubters out here to point out his age (75 years) and how he's in the exact same phase of life as all his friends who have passed away within the last few years.
> Roughly a decade ago, his posts would be frequent, with many posts per month, and often quite long. The more recent ones are infrequent and short.
Highly bullish. Sounds like he's finally started actually writing the book
> He used to mention his book progress around once a month. I think the last time he specifically said he was working on this book was December 2023, and it has only had a couple mentions since then.
From what I recall of the Dance of Dragons announcement, it was suddenly sprung on us with no warning. In general he doesn't like giving progress updates and if it was nearing I would expect him to make it a surprise not focus millions of peoples' attentions on his status updates as they move from "T minus ten thousand words," "T minus eight thousand words,".... etc.
@Joshua That's exactly why I think Lion can help prevent disaster in the future by clarifying now. I see this is trading different from some other very similar questions.
@Eliza @Joshua Let's begin with a straightforward criterion: The entire book must be published during George R.R. Martin's lifetime. This means that if it's released in multiple parts, Martin would need to be alive at the time of the final book's publication.
This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.
Thanks for your questions, I will add these to the description.
@Lion Thanks! That matches exactly with what I thought you would say, but it is very good to have it made official.
