Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
36
431
670
2030
54%
chance

This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.

It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books.

The entire book must be published during George R.R. Martin's lifetime. This means that if it's released in multiple parts, Martin would need to be alive at the time of the final book's publication.

This question will be resolved if he dies or the book is published. I might extend the question closing date.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
predicts YES
predicts YES

Let's just get it on the record -- if the name of the book is different, but it is "The book someone in 2023 would have referred to", is it a Yes situation?

predicts YES

What if he splits it into two books again 😂

predicts YES

@Joshua That's exactly why I think Lion can help prevent disaster in the future by clarifying now. I see this is trading different from some other very similar questions.

predicts YES

@Eliza @Joshua Let's begin with a straightforward criterion: The entire book must be published during George R.R. Martin's lifetime. This means that if it's released in multiple parts, Martin would need to be alive at the time of the final book's publication.

This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.

Thanks for your questions, I will add these to the description.


predicts YES

@Lion Thanks! That matches exactly with what I thought you would say, but it is very good to have it made official.

Related question