Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Question

This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as th sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.

It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books.

The entire book must be published during George R.R. Martin's lifetime. This means that if it's released in multiple parts, Martin would need to be alive at the time of the final book's publication.

This question will be resolved if he dies or the book is published. I might extend the question closing date.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 50% chance (97 traders, as of Apr 13, 2026).