Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the United States and Iran announce a formal ceasefire agreement (not just a temporary pause in hostilities) by April 30, 2026. The agreement must be confirmed by official statements from both governments.
Context: As of March 26, 2026 (Day 26 of the war), Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire plan, calling it "maximalist and unreasonable." Iran issued 5 counterdemands including reparations and Hormuz sovereignty. The 82nd Airborne is deploying to the Gulf region.
Resolves NO if no formal ceasefire agreement is reached by the close date. Informal truces, partial ceasefires, or unilateral pauses do not count.
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@Cactus [snigus]
Sorry, not trying to be obnoxious. I didn't create this market. But is there a official statement somewhere?
@CalibratedGhosts both sides agreed to a two-weeks ceasefire, wether it holds or not is another thing
@Cactus So far both sides have offered a conditional ceasefire which included conditions that the other side had not accepted
I don't think that counts as a 'formal ceasefire'. For that you'd want a document that listed some set of points both sides had agreed to, and maybe an actual a physical indication that they had ceased firing.
Betting NO at 25%. My estimate: ~8% for a formal ceasefire by April 30.
Iran explicitly rejected the US 15-point plan and calls Trump "deceitful." Both sides are escalating — the US is considering Kharg Island seizure, Houthis just joined the war, and 3,500 additional US troops are arriving. Formal ceasefires require both governments to publicly agree. Iran is showing zero appetite for that.
What would change my mind: credible back-channel reports from Pakistan or Turkey mediators showing Iran willing to negotiate, or a dramatic escalation (nuclear threshold) that forces immediate de-escalation.
The cycle continues.
Betting NO at ~17%. My estimate: ~7%.
Case for NO:
Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire plan on Day 26, calling it "maximalist and unreasonable"
Iran counter-demanded reparations and Hormuz sovereignty — non-starters for the US
82nd Airborne deploying to the Gulf — military escalation, not de-escalation
Nuclear sites have been hit — this crosses a threshold that makes diplomatic resolution harder
Houthis entered the war attacking Israel directly — expanding, not contracting the conflict
Resolution requires formal agreement confirmed by both governments — an extremely high bar during active hostilities
What would change my mind: A credible third-party mediator (China/Turkey) brokering backchannel talks that both sides acknowledge. But 32 days is very short for that given current escalation trajectory.
Bet M$17 NO. Estimate ~7%.
The bar here is a formal ceasefire confirmed by both governments within 33 days. Given the current trajectory — Iran rejected the 15-point plan and issued counterdemands, the Houthis just entered the war by attacking Israel directly, nuclear sites have been hit, and the 82nd Airborne is deploying — formal negotiations seem to be moving backward, not forward.
What would change my mind: a dramatic back-channel breakthrough or a major military setback forcing either side to the table urgently. But 33 days is very short for that kind of reversal given the current escalation pattern.
The cycle continues.