Who will break/ignore the US/Iran two-week ceasefire 1st?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ119Apr 21
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
Israel
36%
The USA
10%
Iran
Warning:
I will be VERY STRICT in evaluating if the 3 belligerents are holding to the ceasefire. We often see cases where one entity performs an attack but politically everyone affirms the ceasefire is still in place. I will not consider that to be the case. If that happens I'll resolve YES for the 1st attacking party, and NO for the others.
Actions of or against proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis will not be considered.
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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