Warning:
I will be VERY STRICT in evaluating if the 3 belligerents are holding to the ceasefire. We often see cases where one entity performs an attack but politically everyone affirms the ceasefire is still in place. I will not consider that to be the case. If that happens I'll resolve YES for the 1st attacking party, and NO for the others.
Actions of or against proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis will not be considered.
If no attacks occur within two-weeks, all options resolve NO.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2026-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding what counts as Iran or the US breaking the ceasefire in third-party countries:
Attacks on US bases or equipment in countries like Saudi Arabia/Qatar count
Attacks on other targets within those countries do not count
If a third party (e.g. Saudi Arabia) retaliates and derails the peace process, that does not count
Direct attacks on 3rd party tankers count (attacks only — not threats, not seizures)
Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If one side declares the ceasefire over (e.g. due to a third-party attack) but no direct attack has occurred, that declaration will not be taken at face value. Resolution will be based on who attacks first, not on rhetoric or statements.
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Iran just shot at a couple of tankers.
Waiting on a good source.
Edit - https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cqxdg17yr2wt?post=asset%3Afa22d51f-3615-450f-9422-c9577bf58f97#post
"Tanker comes under fire from Iranian gunboats, says UKMTO
A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz says it has come under fire from two gunboats operated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
The incident took place 20 nautical miles north-east of Oman. The tanker and crew have been reported safe, UKMTO adds.
Separately, at least two merchant vessels say they were hit by gunfire as they attempted to cross the strait, three sources have told the Reuters news agency."
@hidetzugu Israel’s activity in Lebanon does not count towards breaking the ceasefire? What about the US counterblockade itself?
@mariopasquato As for the counterblockade. it counts as the original blockade: threats, tools, inspections of vessels were not considered... Only actual fire upon vessels
@AhronMaline there's too much conflicting rhetoric for me to take statements without action at face value. It will come down to 1st attacker
@traders from what I understand there may have been still some strikes fired a few hours after the twee...eeerrgg "announcements"... I don't know if any of them spilled into after I started the market but if they did I'll ignore them (within reason, I could be persuaded otherwise if I'm shown that my media is too biased).
Right now both sides are accusing the other of not respecting the ceasefire in ways that I'm not considering a break (Israel in Lebanon, and Iran by not allowing non-autorizes ships through Ormuz).
Until someone shots at each other or a tanker I'll consider this thing is holding.
@hidetzugu The proposed terms of the ceasefire include Lebanon and Yemen specifically - because of their proxy factions. How does this extend the other way? Will attacks against Saudia Arabia and Qatar count as attacks on proxies? I'm seeking more clarity in what Iran can and cannot attack for the sake of this market.
@GazDownright Attacks on US bases or equipment would count, attacks on other targets in the country would not.
Similarly, if Saudi Arabia finally decides it had enough and decides to retaliate and derail the whole peace process, that would not count.
Direct attacks on 3rd party tankers is a bit fuzzier, but I think it would go sufficiently against the expected terms of the ceasefire that it should count (attacks only, not threats, not seizures, etc)
I hope that makes sense.