Who will break/ignore the US/Iran two-week ceasefire 1st?

Question

Warning:
I will be VERY STRICT in evaluating if the 3 belligerents are holding to the ceasefire. We often see cases where one entity performs an attack but politically everyone affirms the ceasefire is still in place. I will not consider that to be the case. If that happens I'll resolve YES for the 1st attacking party, and NO for the others.

Actions of or against proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis will not be considered.

If no attacks occur within two-weeks, all options resolve NO.

I will not bet in this market.

Update 2026-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding what counts as Iran or the US breaking the ceasefire in third-party countries:

Attacks on US bases or equipment in countries like Saudi Arabia/Qatar count

Attacks on other targets within those countries do not count

If a third party (e.g. Saudi Arabia) retaliates and derails the peace process, that does not count

Direct attacks on 3rd party tankers count (attacks only — not threats, not seizures)

Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If one side declares the ceasefire over (e.g. due to a third-party attack) but no direct attack has occurred, that declaration will not be taken at face value. Resolution will be based on who attacks first, not on rhetoric or statements.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Iran, followed by Israel and The USA are most likely. See the market for live updates (31 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).