MANIFOLD
Will the US conduct additional airstrikes on Iranian soil before April 25, 2026?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ93
Apr 25
77%
chance

Resolves YES if CENTCOM, the Pentagon, or credible wire services (Reuters/AP) confirm at least one additional US airstrike on Iranian territory after March 26, 2026, and before April 25, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Resolves NO otherwise. Context: following reported US-Iran military tensions in March 2026 including Israel's strike on Iranian Navy commander and Iran's tightening of Strait of Hormuz.

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