Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026, there is a verified, comprehensive ceasefire or official end to the active military conflict between the United States and Iran.

"Active military conflict" is defined as direct, state-on-state kinetic warfare, including airstrikes, naval engagements, or ground combat between the regular military forces of the two nations.

"Yes" requires that no new direct kinetic engagements between the two nations occur through the end of the day on April 30, 2026. This market will resolve to "No" if, as of May 1, 2026, direct kinetic conflict is ongoing or if there is no official confirmation that the conflict has ceased.

Resolution will be determined by consensus of major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, and New York Times).

Background

The relationship between the United States and Iran has been characterised by decades of tension, typically manifesting through proxy conflicts, sanctions, and cyber warfare rather than direct, declared state-on-state war. Defining the "end" of a conflict that has historically been defined by asymmetry and proxy activity is complex; for this market, the focus is strictly on the cessation of direct, overt military engagement between the two nations. Traders should monitor credible international reporting for announcements regarding ceasefire agreements or the cessation of hostilities.