Here are two markets you might find interesting:

https://manifold.markets/jim/when-manifolds-agi-countdown-resolv?r=amlt

https://manifold.markets/jim/will-manifolds-agi-clocks-1-yearave?r=amlt

This needs more input

Turning test isn't really that good for judging intelligence and "high quality Turing test" is extremely ambiguous. Some versions of turing test were passed by GPT-3.5, but I personally wouldn't call it AGI.

i would agree.

Currently averaging at about 51% accurate

42%

39%

40%

37%

How exactly are we measuring the accuracy in terms of percentage?

@TheAllMemeingEye You should decide based on how accurate you feel it is since there isn’t really much else to go on.

@BooLightning is it asking what percentage of the time between now and what the countdown currently says equals the discrepancy between the countdown and our own estimate?

@TheAllMemeingEye Yes that would work, but it’s less about how accurate it is at any given time and more about how accurate you feel it is overall.