When will AIs be good at predicting the future?
20
1.3kṀ49862042
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
70%
2025
80%
2026
83%
2027
94%
2030
Each year category resolves to the percentage of people worse than the best AI at predicting the future.
To measure who is better or worse at predicting the future, I will look at how the best AI system did in the ACX prediction contest. In summary, it is about placing a bunch of predictions at once on relevant topics. You can read more about it here: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/2023-contest/.
I might use a different contest if I find a better one.
Similar market about problem solving: https://manifold.markets/patrik/how-good-will-ais-be-in-solving-com.
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