
When will AIs be good at predicting the future?
20
1.3kṀ49862042
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
70%
2025
80%
2026
83%
2027
94%
2030
Each year category resolves to the percentage of people worse than the best AI at predicting the future.
To measure who is better or worse at predicting the future, I will look at how the best AI system did in the ACX prediction contest. In summary, it is about placing a bunch of predictions at once on relevant topics. You can read more about it here: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/2023-contest/.
I might use a different contest if I find a better one.
Similar market about problem solving: https://manifold.markets/patrik/how-good-will-ais-be-in-solving-com.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI
70% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)
Which AI future will we get?
Will AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?
5% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
By 2026 will there be autonomous AI good enough that I use it?
37% chance
Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
18% chance
Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?
4% chance
Sort by:
@MalachiteEagle Very interesting. Tho I think something like they used for openai o1 and o3 models but with questions that are after the training data could be even a better way.
People are also trading
Related questions
Once AI can predict the future better than any human it will be AGI
70% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)
Which AI future will we get?
Will AI be able to accurately predict natural disasters with a week's notice by 2030?
5% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
By 2026 will there be autonomous AI good enough that I use it?
37% chance
Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
18% chance
Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?
4% chance