Will an AI system beat human performance in Trackmania Tool-Assisted Speedrunning by the end of 2025?
12
1kṀ4856
Dec 31
5%
chance

I suspect that this is a very difficult problem for an AI to solve. It requires advanced planning and game knowledge that I don't think that current AI paradigms are capable of.

Videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzqq8I3JFz4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9w_PrEOeMjw

Spreadsheet of best TAS times:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R1N4mQkRyQemJgDAGh54v9_n4fLW4Z3EGp71xrIBRIY/edit#gid=0

This question will resolve true if an AI is able to beat or equal 50% of human-created TAS across the TMUF/TMNF Nadeo campaign maps at any point before December 31st 2025.

AI
Technical AI Timelines
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
68% chance
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
13% chance
When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?
Will a fully AI generated osu! beatmap make it to the ranked section by the end of 2025?
48% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?
22% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
49% chance
Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?
35% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI be able to play a type of video game that it wasn't trained on before 2026?
28% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy