Will there be at least a "close call" with a powerful misaligned AI before 2100?
43
1kṀ47072100
83%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes when I hear of a human-level or greater agenty AI breaking out of the box and doing bad things.
Will try to resolve YES when incident is still in progress and we don't yet know whether it wipes out humans or not.
I will not bet on this market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
9% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
14% chance
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
29% chance
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
18% chance
Will deceptive misalignment occur in any AI system before 2030?
81% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
9% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will AI take over the world by 2100?
49% chance
Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?
69% chance
Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?
13% chance