Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?
18
1kṀ11kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution will be based on this Wikipedia page or its successor, if possible. If it significantly changes criteria or ceases to update, I will do my best to resolve based on other credible reporting and the same criteria.
Major war is defined as 10,000 or more combat-related deaths in current or previous year.
Nuclear powers will include the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
The conflict in question must not currently be listed on the "major wars" section of the page in question, as of question creation. That list is the Myanmar conflict, Arab-Israeli conflict, Insurgency in the Maghreb, Russo-Ukrainian War, and Sudanese civil war.
UTC time.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,073 | |
| 2 | Ṁ87 | |
| 3 | Ṁ85 | |
| 4 | Ṁ42 | |
| 5 | Ṁ42 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
10% chance
Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?
28% chance
Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?
40% chance
Will a nuclear detonation happen in space by the end of 2026?
4% chance
Will there be a nuclear war in the next 50 years?
33% chance
Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?
43% chance
Will there be a major nuclear disaster by 2030?
12% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be used in a war by the end of this decade?
18% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
13% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
11% chance