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Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
36
Ṁ1.3kṀ19k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
Pakistan
Resolved
NO
United States
Resolved
NO
Russia
Resolved
NO
United Kingdom
Resolved
NO
France
Resolved
NO
China
Resolved
NO
India
Resolved
NO
North Korea
Resolved
NO
Israel
Resolved
NO
Iran
Resolved
NO
[Other country not listed above]
Resolved
NO
[Non-state actor]
Resolved
NO
[Unattributed as of close time]

Tests, accidental detonations, and peaceful nuclear explosions are not included. During 2025, UTC time.

The weapon must detonate to be included.

2024 version: /EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-detonate-a-nuc

  • Update 2025-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A use is considered offensive if the detonation occurs outside the recognized borders of the country using the weapon.

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What is meant by 'offensive' use? Is the use of a nuke to defend against an invasion offensive?

@skibidist apologies for not figuring that out sooner. Lacking any great suggestions, I'm going with: outside the recognized borders of the country using it, and not a test.

How is this list exhaustive?

<edit> I'm dumb, did not see the "other countries" option

The intent here is that this list is exhaustive; if there is an offensive nuclear detonation, at least one of the categories can resolve positively. That is: "country" and "non-state actor" include all possible actors; between that and "unattributed", something can resolve positively.

Did I miss anything there? Any edge cases worth worrying about?

opened a Ṁ5 YES at 1.0% order

Extraterrestrial Aliens.

OK, yep, that's an edge case I missed. Hopefully not worth worrying about, though. I think that could result in a situation where an alien state offensively detonates a nuke and nothing here resolves in response.

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