Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade? | Manifold

Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?

21

Ṁ100Ṁ876

2035

18%

chance

7

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will a country use at least one nuclear weapon against another country from now til 2035?

Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a dirty bomb will count towards a "yes" resolution.

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opened a Ṁ50 YES at 18% order

EMP included ?

Dirty bomb?

@spiderduckpig yes

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