Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Israel publicly acknowledges or there is credible evidence from reputable sources that Israel has deployed nuclear weapons in a military operation. Deployment is defined as the active use or positioning of nuclear weapons in a manner intended for potential combat use. The market will resolve to "No" if no such deployment is confirmed by the end of 2025. Reliable sources for verification include official Israeli government statements, reports from international organizations such as the United Nations, and reputable news outlets.

Background

Israel maintains a policy of nuclear ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying the possession of nuclear weapons. However, it is widely believed to possess a nuclear arsenal. Recent developments have heightened regional tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and military installations on June 13, 2025, as part of Operation Rising Lion. These strikes targeted key sites such as the Natanz nuclear facility and resulted in the deaths of senior Iranian military officials. (en.wikipedia.org) Despite these actions, there has been no public indication that Israel has deployed nuclear weapons in these operations.

Considerations

Israel's longstanding policy of nuclear ambiguity complicates the verification of any potential nuclear deployment. Additionally, the use of nuclear weapons would represent a significant escalation in military strategy, likely prompting widespread international condemnation and altering geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Traders should monitor official statements and credible news reports for any developments related to Israel's military actions and nuclear policy.