Will there be a nuclear war before 2100? | Manifold

Will there be a nuclear war before 2100?

13

Ṁ130Ṁ686

2100

46%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves yes if nuclear weapons used in a conflict kill over 10 million people.

Resolves no if not resolved yes by 2100

Market context

Existential Risk

Global Conflict

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