When will xAI release Grok 4?
39
1.4kṀ13k2026
1%
Before June 2025
1.2%
Before July 2025
86%
Before August 2025
92%
Before September 2025
93%
Before October 2025
95%
Before November 2025
94%
Before December 2025
96%
Before 2026
96%
Before February 2026
95%
Before March 2026
96%
Before April 2026
Minor changes to the name, such as using "Grok 4-reasoning" or "Grok 4-beta" instead of "Grok 4", are acceptable when determining the release.
To count as released, the model must be publicly accessible. waitlist signups where only a portion of the general public has access by some date is sufficient for a YES resolution.
If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4 (this market)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
When will xAI release grok 3 Thinking (NOT "Beta")?
7/14/25
Grok 4 before 2026?
99% chance
Will Grok 4 release before Chat GPT 5?
99% chance
When will xAI release Grok 4 (or Grok 3.5)
8/21/25
Grok 3.5 available before July?
2% chance
Will xAI release grok 4.20 ?
34% chance
Will the next major Grok release be called Grok 3.5?
4% chance
X.AI releases a Grok-powered code editor before October 16, 2025
36% chance