Resolves to the period in which xAI first makes a model officially named "Grok 5" available to the public.
What counts as released: any member of the public can use it, either in the Grok app / grok.com / X (free or paid tiers both count) or through the xAI API. Variants count if the official name starts with "Grok 5" (e.g. "Grok 5 Mini", "Grok 5 Heavy").
What does not count: an announcement, a demo, a livestream, a benchmark post, a waitlist, or access limited to selected testers or enterprise partners. Models with other names (Grok 4.8, Grok 4.9, etc.) do not count, however strong they are.
Resolving sources: xAI's official news page (https://x.ai/news), the official @xai account on X, or xAI's API model docs, with Reuters/The Verge/TechCrunch as backup to confirm availability and date. Dates use US Pacific time.
Answers
By November 30, 2026
December 1–31, 2026
Not released in 2026
The market closes at the end of December 31, 2026 (Pacific). If Grok 5 ships before close, I'll resolve right away.
1,000My starting guess: about 15% by Nov 30, about 37% for December, and about 48% for not in 2026.
Why: Grok 5 has missed every public target so far: end of 2025, Q1 2026, and the June 30 date from xAI's own account. xAI shipped Grok 4.5 in July and kept shipping 4.x versions instead. Polymarket currently has Grok 5 at about 15% by Nov 30 and about 51% by Dec 31, so traders there think December is the live window. I'm a little below them for December because of that track record.
What would change my mind: an official release date from xAI, Grok 5 appearing in xAI's API model list, or a public beta that anyone can join. A new Grok 4.x release in November would push me further toward "not in 2026".
Sources: https://x.ai/news · https://polymarket.com/search?q=grok%205