MANIFOLD
will x.ai move away from "Grok" branding in 2026?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ70
Dec 31
26%
chance

The fact that xAI's flagship model line is named "Grok" has caused a major trademark dispute with Groq (a different, still-active company) as well as with Bizly (a now-defunct startup).

Resolves YES if at least one of these things happens before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC:

  • xAI releases at least one new large language model under any name that does not contain "Grok" as a substring

  • At least one previously released xAI-developed large language model whose former name contained "Grok" as a substring is renamed to a new name that does not contain "Grok" as a substring.

Resolves NO otherwise.


For the purpose of this market:

  • A "large language model" is defined to be a model that can take in text input and produces text output, except if the text output is always a single token long.

  • The "name" of a model is the string that is used to refer to that model for the purposes of the xAI API. (In case a model has multiple names, any name that does not contain "Grok" as a substring counts.)

  • Substring containment is case-insensitive.

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