When will xAI release Grok 4?
23
1.4kṀ73942026
1%
Before April 2025
2%
Before May 2025
5%
Before June 2025
8%
Before July 2025
18%
Before August 2025
29%
Before September 2025
45%
Before October 2025
52%
Before November 2025
55%
Before December 2025
64%
Before 2026
88%
Before February 2026
89%
Before March 2026
84%
Before April 2026
Minor changes to the name, such as using "Grok 4-reasoning" or "Grok 4-beta" instead of "Grok 4", are acceptable when determining the release.
To count as released, the model must be publicly accessible. waitlist signups where only a portion of the general public has access by some date is sufficient for a YES resolution.
If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4 (this market)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
will xAI open-source Grok 2 by April 30?
8% chance
When will xAI release Grok 4?
11/29/25
When will xAI release grok 3 Thinking (NOT "Beta")?
6/2/25
X.AI releases a Grok-powered code editor before October 16, 2025
23% chance
What exactly will xAI open source, when they "open source" their AI language model "Grok" ?
Will Grok 4 release before Chat GPT 5?
32% chance
What will be true of Grok-2?
Grok 4 before 2026?
78% chance
xAI Grok will beat OpenAI's flagship model on HumanEval benchmarks by the end of 2024.
6% chance