When will xAI release Grok 4?
53
1.4kṀ21kresolved Jul 16
Resolved
NOBefore March 2025
Resolved
NOBefore April 2025
Resolved
NOBefore May 2025
Resolved
NOBefore June 2025
Resolved
NOBefore July 2025
Resolved
YESBefore August 2025
Resolved
YESBefore September 2025
Resolved
YESBefore October 2025
Resolved
YESBefore November 2025
Resolved
YESBefore December 2025
Resolved
YESBefore 2026
Resolved
YESBefore February 2026
Resolved
YESBefore March 2026
Resolved
YESBefore April 2026
Minor changes to the name, such as using "Grok 4-reasoning" or "Grok 4-beta" instead of "Grok 4", are acceptable when determining the release.
To count as released, the model must be publicly accessible. waitlist signups where only a portion of the general public has access by some date is sufficient for a YES resolution.
If it is available through some API only this counts as a release.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4 (this market)
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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