When will OpenAI announce o4?
40
1kṀ11k
resolved Apr 25
Resolved
NO
Before March 2025
Resolved
NO
Before April 2025
Resolved
N/A
Before May 2025
Resolved
N/A
Before June 2025
Resolved
N/A
Before July 2025
Resolved
N/A
Before August 2025
Resolved
N/A
Before September 2025
Resolved
N/A
Before October 2025
Resolved
N/A
Before November 2025
Resolved
N/A
Before December 2025

Minor changes to the name, such as using "o4-large-1125" instead of "o4", are acceptable when determining the announcement. Moreover, skipping some numbers (o5, o9) is similarly acceptable.

To count as announced, an official announcement, with information about the model's capabilities, must be made by OpenAI or an official partner of OpenAI. if it's banned in the US but releases in China this market would still resolve YES.

Note that the model being publicly available at a future date is not required. This market, had it been about o3, would have resolved YES "before January 2025".

  • Integrated GPT-5 scenario: If o4 is simply incorporated into GPT-5 (i.e. if o4 is not independently announced), the market resolves NO.

  • Independent or benchmark announcement: If o4 is trained independently or on top of GPT-5 and there is an official announcement (e.g. benchmark results) even if it is not released as a standalone model, the market resolves YES.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-announce-o4 (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt45-ULpyUuqd2L

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-an-open-so

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-4

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ154
2Ṁ68
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ18
5Ṁ11
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy