MANIFOLD
Best Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) in 2025?
12
Ṁ1.1kṀ6.2k
resolved Jan 1
100%95%
154
0.3%
150
0.5%
151
0.6%
152
0.5%
153
0.7%
155
0.6%
156
0.5%
157
0.4%
158
0.4%
159
0.6%Other

https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/eci

Currently, the top score is GPT-5-Medium with 150.

In fact, the benchmark is normalized so that

claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620 has score 130

gpt-5-2025-08-07_medium has score 150

If this doesn't remain the case, this market will resolve N/A.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to the highest ECI for a model released in 2025.

See the version that ends in April 2026:

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boughtṀ50 YES

@jim wanna bet more?

@Bayesian no im not even sure what year this market is for

bought Ṁ25 YES

@jim look at the ECI

bought Ṁ50 YES

Gemini 3.0 > 159

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