When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
3
Ṁ1kṀ8942027
2%
September 2026
4%
October 2026
13%
November 2026
20%
December 2026
26%
January 2027
16%
February 2027
13%
March 2027
7%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
By when will a new AI model release reach a new ECI high score?
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
28% chance
What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?
Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?
91% chance
Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
8% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?
2036
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?
7/1/28
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
8/14/26
In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?
6/8/32