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MANIFOLD
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
26
Ṁ6kṀ2.9k
2028
28%
chance

Codename: TAKEOFF

 

Resolves YES if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 receives an official general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score of 200 or higher.

 

The model must be released before the deadline, but Epoch may score it afterward. The central general-ECI value in Epoch’s canonical score file controls—not confidence bounds or domain-specific scores.

 

If Epoch changes its scale or stops publishing useful scores, MNX will use its published conversion or the closest credible reconstruction of the same threshold.

 


Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀

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holy legalese batman

Fair enough! Edited.

with model labels:

@0xseraphim

Market was designed such that only a significant acceleration on AI capabilities will lead to a YES settlement.