Codename: TAKEOFF

The Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) is a benchmark of AI capabilities created by Epoch AI.

Subject to the fallback, partial-settlement, review, and amendment provisions below, contracts on this market settle to $1 if any AI model publicly released before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET receives an official general-ECI central estimate of 200.0 or higher, and economically $0 otherwise. The qualifying event is the model's release before the deadline; its qualifying score may be published after the deadline in due course. For primary resolution, "ECI" means Epoch AI's general ECI, and "score" means the central eci value in Epoch's canonical general score file, currently https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv, or a successor source designated by MNX. Confidence bounds, bootstrap draws, metadata files, and domain-specific or custom ECI values do not count unless MNX expressly designates otherwise. Where a rounded display and the canonical score file disagree, the score file controls.

An official qualifying observation for an eligible model counts when first published and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard an apparent crossing that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or was not a general-ECI central estimate. MNX may settle the market early after it determines that the threshold was reached.

If Epoch re-anchors or rescales the general ECI and publishes a conversion, MNX may convert the threshold using that mapping. Relevant reference anchors are Claude 3.5 Sonnet = 130.0 and GPT-5 = 150.0. MNX may treat a rescale with no usable conversion as discontinuation or apply another method it considers appropriate.

If Epoch is discontinued or MNX determines that the general ECI is no longer timely, reliable, comparable, or available, MNX may, in its sole discretion, use, combine, skip, modify, or replace one or more alternative sources or methods based on the best information reasonably available. These may include reconstructing the ECI under an Epoch methodology, mapping another reputable capability index such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index to the ECI scale, or another method MNX considers appropriate. MNX determines trigger occurrence, source reliability, model eligibility, data inputs, model matching, fitting treatment, and fallback availability.

Unless MNX announces otherwise under an amendment, a fallback method is used to determine whether an eligible model reached the 200-equivalent threshold. A fallback determination that the threshold was reached resolves YES. If Epoch does not score an eligible model in due course, MNX may treat that delay as a fallback trigger and assess the model using fallback methods. MNX will not settle this market at $0 before the release deadline, and will not settle it at $0 afterward solely because a qualifying measurement is not yet available. MNX will make its final determination within 120 days after the release deadline unless it announces an extension under the amendment provision. An official qualifying Epoch observation continues to resolve YES after a fallback trigger.

If MNX determines that no sufficiently reliable resolution source or method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available, before or after the release deadline. This may include one or more valid MNX exchange-oracle observations at or near a source-cessation time, the deadline, or another time selected by MNX. MNX may disregard or adjust observations it considers stale, anomalous, illiquid, or manipulated. Any exchange-oracle input is an internal market-derived settlement convention, not independent evidence that the ECI threshold was or was not reached.

MNX determines from the public information reasonably available when a model was publicly released, whether a model was scored in due course, and whether a source or method is discontinued, unavailable, unreliable, or no longer comparable. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms. When practicable, MNX intends to publish material methodology, evidence, and amendments and permit review for objective errors before settlement. MNX may correct or delay a determination before it is effected, and settlement is final once effected.

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