Best Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) before May 2026?

Question

https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/eci

Currently, the top score is GPT-5-Medium with 150.

In fact, the benchmark is normalized so that

claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620 has score 130

gpt-5-2025-08-07_medium has score 150

If this doesn't remain the case, this market will resolve N/A.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to the highest ECI for a model released before May 2026.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/best-epoch-capabilities-index-eci-i)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 159, followed by 158 and 157 are most likely. See the market for live updates (12 traders, as of Apr 15, 2026).