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MANIFOLD
Best Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) before May 2026?
20
Ṁ1.6kṀ15k
resolved May 1
100%96%
159
0.1%
150
0.1%
151
0.1%
152
0.1%
153
0.1%
154
0.1%
155
0.1%
156
0.1%
157
0.3%
158
0.4%
160
0.7%
161
0.8%
162
0.5%
163
0.4%
164
0.4%Other

https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/eci

Currently, the top score is GPT-5-Medium with 150.

In fact, the benchmark is normalized so that

claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620 has score 130

gpt-5-2025-08-07_medium has score 150

If this doesn't remain the case, this market will resolve N/A.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to the highest ECI for a model released before May 2026.

See also:

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@mods @Bayesian please resolve to 159

im really gonna miss by one

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 5% order

@Bayesian I assume "released before May 2026" means publically released, so Mythos wouldn't count here right (unless it is publically released in April, which is very unlikely)

@Dssc correct

bought Ṁ3 YES

These should be unlinked MC probably, no early-resolve-no is pretty bad

Do you mean 2026

@jim that's right, fixed

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