Best Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) before May 2026?
4
1.1kṀ1534Dec 31
10%
150
3%
151
4%
152
5%
153
6%
154
7%
155
8%
156
8%
157
8%
158
8%
159
33%
https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/eci
Currently, the top score is GPT-5-Medium with 150.
In fact, the benchmark is normalized so that
claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620 has score 130
gpt-5-2025-08-07_medium has score 150
If this doesn't remain the case, this market will resolve N/A.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to the highest ECI for a model released before May 2026.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Best Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) in 2025?
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Which Organization will have the greatest score on ECI by EOY 2026?
Best clockbench EOY 2025?
What will be the best performance on EnigmaEval by December 31st 2025?
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Will 1-month exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) of ethereum by higher at EOY2025 than EOY2024?
50% chance
Will entropix/entropy-baed sampling hold up well in 2025?
80% chance
Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?
63.9
What will be the best performance on EnigmaEval by December 31st 2026?