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MANIFOLD
ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score
35
Ṁ10kṀ58k
Dec 31
167.3 score
expected
99%
Above 160
74%
Above 170
23%
Above 180
9%
Above 200
8%
Above 225
4%
Above 250

What will the highest score on the Epoch Capabilities Index be at the end of 2026 (assuming the same or similar enough methodology (ie normed to GPT-5 at 150))?

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bought Ṁ2,250 YES

Y'all, Mythos scored 174 and 181 on two different versions of ECI in the model card that was released

EDIT: Oops, I still believe we'll see this will happen, but with less confidence.

@JaySocrates Where are you getting this from? In section 2.3.6 it looks like 160.

@JaySocrates

dont rely on AI for this

sold Ṁ407 YES

@100Anonymous oops, mea culpa

sold Ṁ83 YES

@100Anonymous Or rather, don't only rely on AI. I used AI to do research, and then followed the links (Claude helpfully told me which section of the model card it got Fable 5's AECI from)

bought Ṁ250 NO

https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-highest-epoch-capa?r=U3F1aXNoeUJveQ

Arbitrage?

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