Codename: CNTOP

Contracts on this market settle to $1 if, at any time, a model produced by an AI developer headquartered in the People's Republic of China (including its special administrative regions) and publicly released before January 1, 2028 at 12:00 AM ET is displayed as the highest-scoring model on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) leaderboard by general-ECI central estimate, and economically $0 otherwise. Holding the number-one rank at any moment suffices; it does not matter what is released or displayed afterward. For determinations made after the release deadline, the comparison is among models released before that deadline. General-ECI central estimates control (canonical score file: https://epoch.ai/data/eci_scores.csv); confidence bounds and domain-specific or custom indices do not count. A qualifying measurement must first be published by April 30, 2028 at 11:59 PM ET (the Measurement Cutoff), unless MNX announces an extension under the amendment provision. MNX may settle YES or partially before the Measurement Cutoff, but will not settle NO before it; after the cutoff, MNX may apply the fallback or partial-settlement provisions.

A qualifying display counts when first shown and is not undone by an ordinary later methodological refit. MNX may disregard a display that it determines resulted from an error, correction, unauthorized or manipulated publication, or a non-general index, and may settle YES early; early partial settlement remains available under the partial-settlement provision.

If the ECI is discontinued or MNX determines it is no longer timely, reliable, or comparable, MNX may use a comparable successor ranking or another method in its sole discretion; a fallback determination that an eligible model from such a developer was the top model resolves YES. If no sufficiently reliable resolution method is available, MNX may select a partial settlement value permitted by the Protocol using the best information reasonably available. MNX may interpret or amend this resolution methodology, including while positions remain open, in accordance with the platform Terms; settlement is final once effected.

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