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MANIFOLD
China Top: Chinese lab #1 on ECI before 2028?
3
Ṁ1kṀ650
2028
12%
chance

Codename: CNTOP

 

Resolves YES if a model from an AI developer headquartered in China, including Hong Kong or Macau, was released before January 1, 2028 and holds the #1 general Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) score at any moment.

 

Even briefly holding first place counts. Epoch’s displayed central general-ECI estimates control; confidence bounds and domain-specific scores do not.

 

The qualifying score must appear by April 30, 2028. If Epoch disappears, MNX will use the closest credible successor ranking.

 


Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀

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